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European governments have been alarmed by a Russian disinformation marketing campaign that seeks to deflect criticism that President Vladimir Putin’s struggle with Ukraine dangers leaving tens of millions of individuals in Africa dealing with famine.
Russian diplomats have gone on a media offensive in latest months to push the narrative that sanctions, moderately than Russian blockades, are inflicting shortages of grains and fertilizer in Africa. The general public-relations onslaught exhibits how the months-long struggle in Ukraine is turning into a world propaganda battle as meals, gasoline and crop-nutrient costs surge. EU and UK officers who’ve just lately met their African counterparts at conferences in New York and Rwanda expressed concern that the Russian message is gaining traction, mentioned senior European diplomats who requested to not be recognized. In response, European governments are rising their engagement with leaders on the continent and boosting their very own info campaigns to counter the Russian narrative, the diplomats mentioned.
A senior European intelligence officer mentioned the Kremlin had manufactured the talk as a way to get sanctions lifted and was intent on utilizing the specter of world starvation as a bargaining device in any future peace talks. Moscow has centered a lot of its affect operations on Africa and the Center East, the official mentioned.
No hyperlink
The US and EU haven’t sanctioned any Russian agricultural merchandise and say there’s no hyperlink between penalties on Moscow and grain or fertilizer exports from Russia or Ukraine.
That’s not stopped Russian embassy officers throughout Africa from inserting the blame for the disaster on the west. Latest examples embody Russia’s ambassador to Djibouti posting a graphic on Twitter accusing the EU of mendacity about gasoline and meals shortages, whereas a Russian diplomat in South Africa wrote an editorial within the Mail & Guardian newspaper entitled “The Russian embassy rejects accusation of ‘scary world famine’ unfold by Western propaganda.”
Social media campaigns have amplified their messages, with Fb pages parroting Kremlin speaking factors in French, concentrating on West African nations together with Mali and Ivory Coast, based on Moustafa Ayad, government director for Africa, the Center East and Asia on the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based suppose tank that analyzes on-line disinformation. On-line conspiracy communities in South Africa have additionally been focused, he mentioned.
The pinnacle of the United Nations World Meals Program, David Beasley, mentioned Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports was a “declaration of struggle” on world meals safety, with 49 million individuals in 43 nations dealing with famine.
“Because the Ukraine struggle started, the value of meals and gasoline has risen dramatically in nations all over the world,” he mentioned June 24. “Now, tens of millions might starve.”
International meals costs surged to a document after Russia’s February 24 invasion disrupted exports of grain and vegetable oil by way of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, including to price pressures from logistics snarl-ups and a rebound in shopper demand after the coronavirus pandemic. That’s exacerbated a starvation disaster affecting nations together with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.
Whereas Ukraine and its US and European allies blame Russia for blocking exports and Moscow factors the finger at Kyiv, UN-sponsored talks have to this point didn’t yield a compromise to renew deliveries.
Earlier than the struggle, Russia and Ukraine accounted for three-quarters of world sunflower-oil exports, about 30 p.c of wheat and 15 p.c of corn, based on the US Division of Agriculture. Shortages of grains have pushed up costs, with world benchmarks for wheat and corn rising 22 p.c and 12 p.c respectively this yr.
“The disaster is brought on by Russia. With out that invasion we wouldn’t be within the scenario we’re in,” mentioned Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist on the Agricultural Enterprise Chamber of South Africa. “The value shock is inescapable and that’s instantly associated to the struggle.”
Meals prices account for 40 p.c of shopper spending in sub-Saharan Africa, in contrast with 17 p.c in superior economies.
In 2020, Africa imported $4 billion of agricultural merchandise from Russia, with 90 p.c of that being wheat, whereas $2.9 billion of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley and soy got here from Ukraine, based on Sihlobo. FAO knowledge exhibits that Eritrea and Somalia had been nearly solely depending on Russia and Ukraine for his or her wheat provides final yr, whereas Tanzania, Namibia and Madagascar relied on them for greater than 60 p.c of provides.
Russian and Ukrainian harvests and exports have surged previously decade and farmers within the area usually produce at decrease prices than extra conventional suppliers like Canada and the US, which has helped to maintain wheat costs decrease. Their proximity to North Africa additionally reduces transport prices versus suppliers additional afield.
A part of Russia’s propaganda effort has been to amplify statements by African officers that may be seen as supportive of Russia’s argument. After African Union President Macky Sall met Putin for talks June 3 within the resort city of Sochi, Sall mentioned sanctions had exacerbated the meals disaster.
“Anti-Russia sanctions have made this example worse and now we wouldn’t have entry to grain from Russia, primarily to wheat,” Sall mentioned. “And, most significantly, we wouldn’t have entry to fertilizer. The scenario was dangerous and now it has turn into worse, making a menace to meals safety in Africa.”
Colonial legacy
Russia can draw on its historic position of getting supported liberation actions in components of Africa through the wars and struggles towards colonial and Whites-only rule—backing that helped the previous Soviet Union undermine the US and Europe as a part of its Chilly Battle technique to achieve affect in Africa. Against this the UK and France, as former colonial powers, nonetheless entice suspicion.
“What we’ve seen are narratives centered very exactly on how the US is orchestrating this battle together with NATO with the intention to starve the globe,” Ayad mentioned. “Colonialism must be taken into consideration with African disinformation. That’s what the Kremlin is relying on: calling out Western states moderately than the Kremlin as an imperial pressure.”
The hazard is “very huge” that Putin will try to ascertain a story that the West is chargeable for the famine threatening Africa, German international ministry spokeswoman Andrea Strasse mentioned June 3. “This can be a narrative that we need to strongly resist,” she mentioned.
French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned final week on the Group of Seven leaders summit within the Bavarian Alps that he’ll announce measures in September to accentuate the “struggle towards disinformation.” At a press convention, he referred to Russia’s efforts to hyperlink the meals disaster to sanctions as “faux information.”
The Russian propaganda marketing campaign can be getting beneath the pores and skin of the Individuals.
“The Russian authorities’s makes an attempt to deflect accountability for its actions by blaming others for the worsening disaster within the world meals system are reprehensible,” the US State Division mentioned in a June 22 assertion entitled ‘Mendacity to the World About International Meals Safety.’ “The Russian authorities ought to cease weaponizing meals and permit Ukraine to soundly ship out its grain in order that tens of millions of hungry individuals within the Center East and Africa could be fed.”
With help from Matthew Hill, Olivia Solon, Daniel Zuidijk, Katarina Hoije, Fasika Tadesse, Henry Meyer, Amy Thomson, Helen Nyambura and Samy Adghirni/Bloomberg
Picture credit: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg
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