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MANILA, Philippines—The victory of survey frontrunner and dictator’s son Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was nonetheless not assured whereas previous tax conviction instances would weigh on his potential presidency, Fitch Options stated in a brand new report.
This additionally poses “modest uncertainty” within the Could 9 elections amid divisions inside the ruling political celebration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who has but to endorse any candidate.
There have been additionally rising indicators of assist for opposition candidate and incumbent Vice President Leni Robredo, who trails Marcos in main opinion polls.
“Robredo seems to be gaining political momentum based mostly on anecdotal proof as Marcos has repeatedly missed nationwide presidential debates and interviews by media platforms,” Fitch Options stated in a report dated March 24.
Proof of this assist for Robredo got here from studies of “huge crowds” at her rallies and endorsements from former Cupboard members, civil society teams and retired army generals, it added.
“Moreover, Japanese Samar Governor Ben Evardone, a detailed ally of Duterte and his celebration’s vice chairman, introduced he would again Robredo as an alternative of Marcos, and didn’t signal the celebration decision endorsing Marcos,” Fitch Options stated.
Fitch Options stated the Philippines scored increased marks by way of coverage continuity “whatever the end result” of the elections.
“Among the many main candidates, Marcos’ coverage stance is essentially the most much like outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte and Robredo affords the best distinction, however all of them will present some broad diploma of coverage continuity,” Fitch Options stated.
“Insurance policies corresponding to Duterte’s flagship ‘Construct, Construct, Construct’ infrastructure programme and sustaining a balancing act between the US and China on the geopolitical entrance would possible be continued by the following president,” it added.
Fitch Options additionally weighed in on the newest Pulse Asia survey displaying Marcos with a commanding 60 p.c lead—effectively forward of Robredo’s 15 p.c assist.
“Nonetheless, we word within the runup to 2016 presidential elections, President Duterte trailed behind main candidate Senator Grace Poe in opinion polls for a major time period, albeit by smaller margins. Duterte solely overtook Poe in surveys from mid-March 2016 onwards,” it famous.
Additional dangers to a Marcos presidency have been recognized by way of his earlier tax convictions.
Petitions filed to disqualify Marcos based mostly on tax violations whereas holding authorities positions within the Eighties have been dismissed by the First Division of the Fee on Elections.
These, nonetheless, might be overturned by the Supreme Courtroom.
“If Marcos have been to be dominated ineligible after successful the presidency, he could be succeeded by the brand new vice chairman, who’s elected individually from the president,” Fitch Options stated.
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