Philippine President Duterte’s China pivot hasn’t reduced South China Sea tensions

Greater than 5 years on, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s Beijing-friendly postures haven’t tamed China’s assertiveness within the disputed South China Sea — and the following Philippine chief ought to be bolder in difficult Beijing, mentioned a political and danger analyst.

The Philippines will maintain basic elections to vote for a brand new president in Could as Duterte’s six-year time period involves an finish. Duterte has sought nearer ties with Beijing and declared that he was keen to put aside his nation’s territorial contest with China within the South China Sea.  

China and its Southeast Asian neighbors together with the Philippines have been embroiled in territorial disputes within the South China Sea for many years.

China claims virtually the complete waterway. In the previous few years, China constructed synthetic islands within the sea, whereas Chinese language fishing fleets and maritime militia vessels swarmed areas internationally acknowledged as belonging to different nations.    

“Essentially the most favorable state of affairs for the Philippines can be a change within the mindset of the elected chief in Could 2022,” mentioned Peaches Lauren Vergara, head of the strategic intelligence observe at Amador Analysis Companies, a analysis and advisory agency.

The subsequent Philippine president ought to steer away from “the defeatist perspective displayed by the present management,” and extra firmly problem China’s claims, Vergara wrote in a December report printed by the Asia Society Coverage Institute.

CNBC has reached out to the Philippines’ Division of International Affairs, in addition to the Chinese language embassies in Singapore and the Philippines, for touch upon the report. None have replied on the time of publication.

With simply months left in Duterte’s presidential time period, China’s promised infrastructure investments to the Philippines have fallen wanting expectations, whereas tensions between Manila and Beijing are rising once more within the South China Sea, based on a December report by suppose tank Worldwide Disaster Group.

“Many within the Philippines are more and more sceptical of rapprochement with China if it entails giving up claims to numerous disputed maritime options,” learn the report.

The South China Sea, a resource-rich waterway, contributes round 27% of the Philippines’ whole fisheries manufacturing, mentioned Vergara within the Asia Society Coverage Institute report. A bunch of scientists have reportedly warned that Chinese language actions within the disputed waters threaten the fishing business.

In the meantime, tensions with China have hindered Philippine oil exploration efforts within the sea.

“This has severe repercussions for the nation’s means to realize vitality safety as its fundamental supply of pure fuel for electrical energy provide — Malampaya — nears depletion,” Vergara mentioned.

Some within the Duterte authorities have extra vocally protested the presence of Chinese language vessels in elements of the South China Sea that had been internationally acknowledged as belonging to the Philippines.

In Could, International Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. directed an unusually aggressive tweet at Beijing as the 2 nations clashed over the South China Sea. Locsin Jr. accused China of straining its “friendship” with the Philippines.   

China’s rising assertiveness and Duterte’s “subservience” to Beijing have propelled points surrounding the South China Sea into the general public limelight within the Philippines, mentioned Vergara.

Some analysts mentioned Philippine presidential candidates that seem pro-China might face opposition from the general public.  

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. — son and namesake of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos — led the most recent opinion ballot on the presidential race. In a December survey by impartial pollster Pulse Asia, 53% of respondents picked Marcos Jr. as their favored presidential candidate.

In contrast with Duterte, Marcos Jr. would search “extra balanced ties” with the U.S. and China if he is elected, mentioned Peter Mumford, observe head for South and Southeast Asia in danger consultancy Eurasia Group, in a report final month.

The South China Sea is among the contentious points within the geopolitical competitors between the U.S. and China. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has known as out China’s “illegal” claims and “bullying” within the sea.

The Philippines is in a difficult place in that contest. The Southeast Asian nation has a protection treaty with the U.S., whereas China is its largest neighbor and high financial companion.

“A vital query stays whether or not the Philippines can navigate between China and the U.S. with out an armed confrontation compelling it to decide on sides,” mentioned the Worldwide Disaster Group.

“For now, Manila is hedging nicely. However its balancing act could quickly change into untenable as Beijing seeks to say its regional ambitions and Washington pushes again,” it added.

The suppose tank mentioned the Philippines can not resolve the South China Sea dispute by itself. The nation ought to work with its neighbors on problems with widespread concern, comparable to fisheries administration and legislation enforcement, to handle their territorial disputes.  

The Philippines also needs to push to finalize a “code of conduct” between Southeast Asian nations and China to handle maritime tensions, whereas maintaining a diplomatic channel with Beijing open to scale back misunderstandings, mentioned the Worldwide Disaster Group.

“None of those steps will resolve the more and more entrenched maritime dispute, however they may assist hold the danger low that incidents at sea will escalate towards battle.”